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Q1 2021 Review: Short-Term Bollinger Reversion Strategy 2.0

Q1 2021 Review: Short-Term Bollinger Reversion Strategy 2.0

 Did this mean reversion strategy fare just as well as my momentum and trade systems did for Q1 2021?

Time to find out!

In this revised version of the Short-Term Bollinger Reversion Strategy, I’m waiting for RSI to cross above or below oversold or overbought levels to indicate a bit more momentum in the direction of the trade.

Make sure you review the tweaks here.

And I know I haven’t really covered the position sizing rules for this system just yet but, for simplicity’s sake, I decided to assume a 1% risk per trade in order to help me analyze total performance.

Since I’m running this strategy on a per pair basis, I crunched the numbers for USD/CAD first:

This pair had several signal-free weeks throughout the period, leading to fewer trades taken for Q1.

While some of its metrics like the 75% win rate and six-trade winning streak look impressive, its weak spot of lower average wins vs. average losses proved to be its downfall for the quarter.

USD/CAD wound up with a 1.28% dent or a 60.5-pip loss for Q1 2021.

Did CAD/CHF fare any better? Here are the numbers:

More signals, more losses for this one!

Unlike its positive run in Q4 2020, CAD/CHF wound up with a nasty 171-pip or 3.42% loss this time.

Its win rate ain’t looking too good either at 51.85% while its average win of 0.20% paled in comparison to its average loss of 0.48%.

It had the same amount of trades in its longest winning streak as its longest losing streak, but the former only chalked up 1.13% in gains while the latter saw a 2.78% loss.

All in all, the Short-Term Bollinger Reversion Strategy 2.0 was down 231.5 pips or 4.70% in Q1 2021.

Not the best start to the year, huh?

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